Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
