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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.