Netherlands Polls: Key Players and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most conservative administration in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual governing alliance.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, NSC party and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the premier position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his allies declined to implement a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a country-wide district: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to combat "urban violence", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three other parties appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform focused on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is forecast to decline to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decrease. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a combination of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties potentially including JA21.
