A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
